Spain's most lethal day, Italy 'nears its peak': COVID-19 Bulletin

 Spain's COVID-19 death toll has reached 6,528; the 838 new deaths recorded on Saturday is the country's worst single-day rise

 Italy is nearing the peak of its outbreak, according to deputy health minister Pierpaolo Sileri, who expects cases will drop in 10 days "maximum"

With UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying "things will get worse before they get better," the country's lockdown may have to last until June, according to the Imperial College professor whose advice made Johnson's government change tactics

Portugal has granted legal residency to all asylum seekers who have already begun application, as "an act of solidarity at a time of crisis"

 Germany's health system could be overstretched as the outbreak worsens, according to the head of the federal agency responsible for disease control. For more, see our correspondent below

Outside Europe, U.S. president Donald Trump reversed on an earlier statement that he was considering quarantining New York and two other states
ACROSS EUROPE

By Ross Cullen in Paris

The next two weeks will be the toughest yet in the fight against coronavirus in France, prime minister Edouard Philippe has warned: "The needs in terms of intensive care are exploding and we might have, here or there some difficulties with supply." He and his government colleagues are racing to obtain protective gear, with more than a billion masks ordered from abroad.

The country's outbreak initially took hold in eastern France, where hospitals have become overwhelmed, and has been spreading west. On Sunday, 50 more patients will be transferred from the Grand Est region to other parts of France. The country's top epidemiologist has cautioned that the effects of the 12-day-old French lockdown will only show in the number of cases at the end of next week.

By Guy Henderson in Berlin

How long will the restrictions in Germany last? From a medical perspective, "as long as possible," says Lothar Wieler, the head of Germany's official public health body. In a newspaper interview published on Sunday, Wieler warns Germany is still at the beginning of the pandemic curve and that the country may still not have capacity to cope as the number of cases increases. There is, he says, still a shortage of ventilators. Protective clothing such as masks are also lacking.

Each of Germany's 16 states is dealing with this crisis in a slightly different way. Bavaria, for example, has implemented a lockdown that others haven't yet deemed necessary. Data shows that is proving more effective in restricting movement.

All Germans do have to adhere to new national social distancing rules though, including keeping a distance of 1.5 meters from each other in public and a ban on meet-ups of more than two people. Chancellor Angela Merkel has praised Germans for sticking to those rules. But during this sunny weekend, with people still allowed to head to parks and beaches, that has not always been possible.

Chancellor Merkel's chief of staff has made clear that although the German government may be working on an exit plan, ministers will not even consider easing the current restrictions until 20 April at the earliest. Even then, any phase-out will be gradual and informed by the progress of the disease. Not even the experts can predict exactly how that will go.

What Lothar Wieler does say is that a second wave is a real possibility at some point. So even if Europe's largest economy does begin to tick over once more, there's no guarantee that will last.

By Nicole Johnston in London

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned the country in a letter that things "will get worse before they get better." The PM wrote the letter while in self-isolation at 10 Downing Street and said stricter measures may be enforced. Johnson has contracted COVID-19 and says he has mild symptoms.

He also said more restrictions could be imposed. "We will not hesitate to go further if that is what the scientific and medical advice tells us we must do," Johnson wrote. The letter is being posted to every British household along with a leaflet.

At 1700GMT Saturday the number of people who have died from the virus in the UK had risen to 1,019, a record single-day rise of 260. Stephen Powis, England's National Health Service director, said the UK "will have done well" if the country's death toll is below 20,000.

However, new modeling from the Imperial College in London indicates the number of deaths based on current projections and restrictions may be around 5,700. This is well under the 260,000 deaths projected under its earlier modeling, without public intervention and social distancing.