Marc Finaud: Haniyeh's assassination was brutal message to Iran and Hamas

Marc Finaud, Associate Fellow at the GCSP at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), says Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran was a brutal message both to Iran and Hamas calling for response and aggravating the risk of regional war.

کد خبر: ۱۲۵۳۲۵۵

تاریخ: ۲۲ مرداد ۱۴۰۳ - ۱۰:۰۳

TABNAK –Marc Finaud, Associate Fellow at the GCSP at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), says Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran was a brutal message both to Iran and Hamas calling for response and aggravating the risk of regional war.

He adds that “Indeed, what Netanyahu hopes is that the US will be forced to get involved in such a war.”

Following is the full text of interview:

Q: Enrique Mora, the deputy of Josep Borrell in charge of the European Union's foreign policy, participated in the inauguration ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian. Both Ayatollah Khamenei and Pezeshkian criticize the European countries, especially regarding the JCPOA, but demand dialogue with these countries. What is your assessment?

A: Iran is aware that European countries made serious efforts to mediate between Iran and the United States to revive the JCPOA even if those efforts did not succeed under Trump and even after Biden decided to return to the JCPOA. Any realistic assessment of the prospects of revival of the JCPOA and lifting of US sanctions includes a positive role for the Europeans.

Q: Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized the “constructive dialogue” with the European countries. European Troika members voted a resolution against Iran on the board of governors of the IAEA, which was approved. What is your assessment of these two events?

A: They are not incompatible. As initiators of the JCPOA, the E3 bear a special responsibility to ensure proper implementation of their commitments by all side including Iran, especially regarding the cooperation with the IAEA required by Iran's Safeguards Agreement with the Agency. As they demonstrated throughout the negotiations that led to the JCPOA, the Europeans want a negotiated diplomatic solution to the crisis with Iran, but still insist that Iran must abide by its obligations.

Q: Regarding the nuclear negotiations, it seemed that Iran and the United States were engaged in bilateral negotiations. It seems that this process was not pleasant for EU3 and it wants to play a more effective role. Perhaps the resolution of the Council of Governors at the initiative of the European Troika showed their dissatisfaction with the ruling process. What is your assessment?

A: There is no real competition or divergence between the Europeans and the Americans. The Europeans understand that the opposition between Tehran and Washington can only be solved by negotiations and they approve those mediated by Oman that have some prospects for success as it was the case under Obama prior to the JCPOA. However, of course, the Europeans expect the Americans to keep them informed about the contents of such talks when they address Iran's nuclear programme.

Q: How will Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran affect the process of nuclear negotiations? This assassination took place on the day when Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized interaction with the world.

A: At this stage, it is difficult to predict. It seems that Netanyahu was concerned that, after Pezeshkian was elected vowing talks with the United States to remove the sanctions and appointed Javad Zarif, the former JCPOA negotiator, as his national security advisor, prospects of normalization would increase. Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran was a brutal message both to Iran and Hamas calling for response and aggravating the risk of regional war. Indeed, what Netanyahu hopes is that the US will be forced to get involved in such a war.  This is why it would be wise for Iran not to fall into this trap and avoid any serious escalation.