The sale of Iranian oil is not because of Biden's green light/Trump has not made a difference

Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the sale of Iranian oil is not because of Biden's green light.

کد خبر: ۱۲۴۳۹۹۳

تاریخ: ۰۲ تير ۱۴۰۳ - ۱۲:۳۶

TABNAK – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the sale of Iranian oil is not because of Biden's green light.

“I do not believe there has been any understanding or green light involving the Biden administration,” Pillar told Tabnak News Agency.

He adds: Whatever oil Iran has been able to sell reflects its ability to circumvent Western attempts to restrict those sales.

Following is the full text of the interview.

Q: It seems that the recent resolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency lays the groundwork for the next actions of the E3 and the U.S. against Iran's nuclear program. In the sense that it is the basis for snapback activation. What is your assessment?

A: The resolution could be considered groundwork for further action, in the sense that it would be hard to envision action in the U.N. Security Council against Iran on nuclear matters if the IAEA board of governors had not first made its critical statement about Iran.  But I doubt that decisions about any further action have yet been taken either in the E3 or the U.S.  Any such action that imposed new sanctions might well be described as "snapback" in following the procedures laid out in the JCPOA.  Supporters of such action would be asked to explain, however, how sanctions could be handled this way when Iran's exceeding of the JCPOA limits came only after the United States reneged on its commitments under the JCPOA.

Q: If Biden wins the US election, will he sign a new agreement with Iran?

A: This would not be a priority for Biden.  When beginning his first term, he missed an opportunity to quickly undo Trump's action regarding the JCPOA by simply signing new executive orders undoing that action.  He instead waited and then treated the matter more as one of negotiating a new agreement.  Iran countered with its own new demands, and the whole negotiation bogged down and failed to reach agreement.  Some of the same impediments to a new negotiated agreement would remain if new negotiations took place.  As long as there is no lasting cease-fire agreement in Gaza--which might still be the case after the U.S. election--it is very unlikely Biden would try to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Iran.  Another variable is the Iranian presidential election.  Prospects for new nuclear negotiations would be improved if Pezeshkian were to win (with Zarif as his principal influence on foreign policy).

Q: If Trump wins, what will be his approach to Iran's nuclear program?

A: His approach will be the same as during his first term: to conduct unlimited economic warfare against Iran and to pile on as many sanctions as possible.  The fact that this approach failed during his first term will not be a deterrent to him; he is less interested in a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue than in sustaining before his domestic constituency the image of a hardliner on anything involving Iran.

Q: Will E3 and the United States allow Iran’s JCPOA restrictions to be lifted in October 2025?

A: In the absence of a new nuclear agreement, the short answer is no.  Both the E3 and the U.S. have numerous mechanisms, independent of the JCPOA, for acting against things such as Iranian export or import of armaments.

Q: Some argue that the sale of oil by the government of Ebrahim Raisi is the result of an understanding between Iran and America and with the green light of the Biden government, and if Trump comes to power, it will prevent the sale of Iranian oil. But Iran's officials believe that oil sales have nothing to do with Biden's government, and Iran's oil sales will continue even with Trump's presence. What is your assessment?

A: I do not believe there has been any understanding or green light involving the Biden administration.  Whatever oil Iran has been able to sell reflects its ability to circumvent Western attempts to restrict those sales.