Shireen Hunter: Doubtful that Biden wants nuclear deal with Iran

Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that it is doubtful that Biden wants a nuclear deal with Iran.

کد خبر: ۱۲۳۹۷۲۰

تاریخ: ۰۸ خرداد ۱۴۰۳ - ۱۴:۱۷

TEHRAN(Tabnak) –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that it is doubtful that Biden wants a nuclear deal with Iran.

She adds that “With war in Gaza and the rise of anti-Israel feelings in the US, Biden would want to reassure Israel. This includes keeping Iran as a permanent enemy.”

Following is the text of the interview:

*The nuclear status of Iran and America is based on the understanding of May 2023. However, Iran has not been able to get its blocked funds. Can this understanding continue?

The May 2023 agreement was mostly about the release of some US citizens, including Siamak Namazi, held in prison in Iran. In exchange, the US was supposed to allow Iran's access to its funds blocked by South Korea and a few other countries.

However, as soon as this deal was revealed, the opponents of any reduction in US-Iran tensions started a campaign against it. Consequently, first the US stated that the funds could only be used for humanitarian purchases and later stopped its use altogether.  This is not the first instance of Iran making a deal with Washington reneging on it. The very fact that the frozen funds, instead of being returned to Iran directly, were held in Qatari bank, showed that the US was not serious in concluding this deal. In fact, as long as basic problems with America are not resolved the success of any future understanding will remain doubtful.

*The US House of Representatives has approved a bill that limits Iran's oil sales to China. Will the Biden administration implement this bill? If this happens, the facilitation of Iran's oil sales to China, which is said to be part of the understanding of May 2023, will be violated. If the Biden government implements the bill, won't the main framework of this understanding be destroyed?

After the Gaza crisis and the ensuing tensions between America and Israel, the US has tried to convince Israel to be more forthcoming on the Palestinian issue by promising total support for it in confronting Iran. The latest bill is an example of such a policy. The important question is whether China would ignore US sanctions? China's decision would depend on its calculations on the potential impact of ignoring US sanctions on its overall ties with Washington.

*According to some news, Iran and the United States are conducting indirect negotiations, one of the axes of which is the nuclear issue. Why do you think these talks were formed after the direct conflict between Iran and Israel?

The United States' main objective of these contacts has been the prevention of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel, which would almost certainly lead to America' s involvement on Israel's side. The nuclear issue has been of secondary importance.

*It seems that the May understanding could not meet Iran's expectations. Is it possible for the Biden government to reach a new agreement with Iran in the second round? In this regard, people like Ben Rhodes served as deputy national security advisor to President Barack Obama, believe that the Biden government should reach an agreement with Iran in the second term. What is your assessment?

I doubt that Biden would want an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue. With war in Gaza and the rise of anti-Israel feelings in the US, Biden would want to reassure Israel. This includes keeping Iran as a permanent enemy. The fact is that the US knows that for the foreseeable future Iran is incapable of posing a serious nuclear threat either to America or its regional allies. The nuclear issue has always been used as an excuse to pressure Iran and keep it weak and underdeveloped and potentially bring about a change of regime. Nuclear issue would not be resolved until other problems in US-Iran relations are resolved.

*In his recent conversation with the Financial Times, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi announced that Iran is ready to hold ‘serious talks’ with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Can this process lead to the start of nuclear talks?

If the US decides that it wants a new deal with Iran, the activities of the IAEA director could help the process. Otherwise, their contributions to a prospective deal would remain limited.